Quotations to fluctuate at Russia's market

Updated September 23, 2008

   The rapid quotations growth that took place during the trades in the Russian stocks on Friday, September 19, didn’t have any continuation on Monday, September, 22 - according to the results of the trading session, the indices added 0,6-1%. The trades’ volume has exceeded hardly the Friday indices, when the stock exchanges have been trading within half of the day. The market participants expect the entry of the budgetary facilities to the market, as well as the recovery of the affected companies and banks’ solvency.

   Before the trading session of September, 22 started, the Federal Financial Markets Service (FFMS) had informed the participants that they could finalize the margin lending agreements reached before the trades had stopped on September, 17, and sell their securities. "The lifting of the FFMS’s ban on the margin trade resulted in the burst of activity at the beginning of trades and the quotations surge", the head of Olma IF’s sales department Dmitry Lobanov marked. At MICEX (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange), 30% of the turnover fell mostly to the first hour of trades.

   On September, 22, the overall trades volume of MICEX (RUR 30,4 billion) had equaled almost the Friday volume (RUR 31 billion), but the brokers were trading during half of the session due to the interruptions, so, the volume fell almost by half. The analogical situation was during the trades in the Russian securities at the LSE (London Stock Exchange). If on Friday, September, 19, the trades’ volume totaled $3,1 billion (the sum of the agreements reached with Gazprom attained $1,2 billion), on Monday, September, 22, the trades’ volume didn’t exceed $1,5 billion.

    The continuing oil prices growth (on September, 22, Brent crude’s quotations exceeded $100 per barrel, and WTI’s quotations reached $108 per barrel) didn’t lead to the active purchases of the investors. According to the results of the day, the MICEX index added only 0,62%, and settled at the mark of 1105,73 points, and the RTS index grew by 1,05%, and settled at 1309,5 points. Europe’s trades closed with the indices’ drop by 1,4-2,3%, and in the USA, the markets opened with the drop of the top indices by 1,6% (19.00 Moscow time).

   Along with such low trades’ volume and the growth of the key Russia’s indices, the speculative trade in some securities caused such quotations’ fluctuations, that the trades in them were suspended. MICEX suspended the trades (due to the rapid quotations’ growth) in the stocks of Volzhskaya TGC, MREGC (Moscow Region Electric Grid Company), Irkutskenergo, Yakutskenergo, TGC-1, OGC-2, and STC (South Telecommunication Company). The volatility that grew lately led to the major discrepancies in the quotations of the same securities traded at MICEX and the LSE. "After on Friday, September, 19, the trades in VTB Bank’s stocks had been closed at the internal market due to the major surge in price, the demand that was pushing the quotations up, moved to the LSE, where the price of the bank’s depositary receipts grew by 40%", the vice president of SI Capital Dmitry Sadovy explains. In order to terminate the difference, on September, 22, VTB’s quotations were moving towards each other, and as a result, they grew by 15% at MICEX, and the bank’s depositary receipts lost 13% at the LSE.

   Such major quotations’ fluctuations attract speculators, but frighten the investors off. Lately, the maximum daily prices’ fluctuations of "the blue chips" exceed rarely 8-10%, the head of Kapital MC’s analytical department Sergey Karykhalin explained. However, the events of the previous week showed that quotations can fluctuate within 10% during a day.

   According to the experts, the majority of the former active trades’ participants, such as Troika Dialog and Renaissance Capital, have cut their activity at the stock exchange for some time. The rumors about a sale or withdrawal from a purchase of one or another investment company or bank go around the market. The senior investment manager of Gazprombank Asset Management Andrey Zokin considers that investors are waiting for the entry of the budgetary facilities to the market. The facilities are very important for the majority of the players to operate at the stock market. "Previous week, we had won the discount back that was being formed due to the liquidity shortage at the market. Now, everyone expects, when the wish comes true", Mr. Zokin marks.