Russia's market to rebound

Updated September 19, 2008

The urgent measures undertaken by Russia’s state regulators on the liquidity growth of the Russian equity market participants provided the rapid recovery of the quotations that had been falling lately.

The liquidity problems of the market participants were being overcome by means of decisive actions undertaken by the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance. Moreover, the verbal interventions of Russia’s political authorities backed psychologically the vertical recovery of Russia’s market that demonstrated even the 20-30-percent growth of the stock indices.

The actions of Russia’s financial authorities were reminding the analogical actions undertaken by the Central Banks of the other world countries, both emerging and already developed. All markets require the liquidity, and they are provided mainly with it.

As a result, at the beginning of the trade session, the American market was rising by 3-3,6%. Both Asian and West European stock floors demonstrated the major growth.

The world oil prices show the broad fluctuations, however, under the conditions, when the rate of the single European currency has reached the resistance level of about $1,44, the price of the "black gold" will recover probably to the psychologically important level of $100 per barrel.

All this factors mean that in the nearest future, Russia’s market continues to rebound, since its growth has been stopped shifty and it may recover.

The announcement about the forecast falling of Russia’s sovereign rating made by S&P agency didn’t influence on the securities quotations, the analysts of Veles Capital Company consider. The market growth was reminding mainly the technical correction after the severe fall, therefore, in future, it is possible to expect the high volatility of the quotations.

According to the assessments of Alor Company’s analysts, on Monday, September, 22, the positive external background will be observed and it will lead to the continuing quotations growth of Russia’s stocks. Nevertheless, both the local uncertainty and the risk of the correction remain.

Moreover, S&P has taken to account already the actions of Russia’s government on the fight against liquidity crisis and has revised the forecast on the rating towards lowering from "positive" to "stable", and that may result in the new outflow of the non-residents’ capital from Russia’s stock market.