Actuality  November, 23, 2007

By 2020 GDP would grow several times in Russia, and the country would be among the leading five on this index, promised Andrey Klepach, the director of macroeconomic prognostication general department of MEDT (Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Russia).

By instructions of the president Putin and under the supervision

of Klepach was developed the concept of long-term socio-economic development of Russia by 2020.

The main emphasis is on innovative technologies that should, according to Klepach, fully modernize the macroeconomics of Russian Federation, without destroying its basic established principles.

The document is introduced to the government and

is updated actively. It is known that exist three variants of concepts which should resolve into full work in the end. On February, 2008 the concept will be submitted to approval in the State Duma of Russian Federation.

Concept presupposes that by 2020 Russia will be among the world leading five by GDP volume, outstripping the European countries.

The places in “five”, as expected, will be arranged as follows: China, USA, India, Japan, Russia.

The main task, according to Klepach, is stabilization and keeping the image of Russia’ future as the country that occupies leading positions in few industrial areas simultaneously. Now Russian Federation holds quite high position in the world market in the sphere of spacecrafts engineering. According to the MEDT prognosis, aircraft engineering, helicopter engineering and shipbuilding should be added also

to the technical niche. Thus the products of this industry will be mainly exported.

It is planned to pay considerably more attention to the nanotechnology area and software development. Agriculture will not remain regardless also. Today, Klepach marked, Russia is one of the world leaders by grain production and export, in future it is planned to lead meat industry to the same indices.

According to the MEDT prognosis, in 2020 GDP of Russian Federation would make up RUR153,661 trln or more than $5 trln, at the predictive American currency rate at 30 rubles for $1. In 2007 Russia’s GDP should make up over RUR30 trln or $1,3 trln.

However, these figures are not final.

Klepach supposed that the oil prices prognosis would inevitably rise, that would necessarily affect the ruble rate.

After this concept, the social structure of the Russian society should certainly change for the better. Only 20% from the general number of population refers to the middle class in Russia.  This determination presupposes the man’s ownership of the own apartment, car, country real estate and stable income level. It is notable that 20% is a rather relative figure that was received by means of surveys. Actually, at the account of all criteria listed above, only 9% can be referred to the middle class in Russia. So, Klepach supposed that by 2020 about 50% Russians could refer themselves to this society layer.
According to the prognosis, the welfare of the separately taken citizens would increase stably but slowly. The economy would grow by 6,6% GDP per year in the long-term plan. Now in Russia per capita GDP makes up $13 000 (30% from American one), by 2020 it should make up about $30 000 and by 2030 – over $40 000.

The most relevant matter of this autumn, the inflation matter, wasn’t disregarded also. According to the long-term prognosis, the inflationary rate would be managed to reduce by 3% per year, but only by 2020. Low rates of inflation reduction are difficult enough to change in conditions of rapidly developing market economy. This same economy, according to Klepach, takes place in Russia.

Long-term concept of the Russian economy development, in Klepach opinion, should be exceptionally based on the innovative potential enlargement. Now Russia follows the energy source scenario.

But at the moment one can’t handle ingrained problems in the infrastructure without it.

In future, according to Andrey Klepach, the released capital should be directed to the innovative sectors development, otherwise many high-technology industries could become suppliers of component parts for the western companies.

However, the share of innovative products is considered extremely small today.

It makes up only 2,5% from a gross output, while it attains 30% in the European countries.

According to Klepach, it is not eliminated that the share of innovative enterprises in industry should grow by 40%. The export of technical products would increase seven-eight times and would make up about $125–130 bln.

The innovative scenario of economy development can provide rapid

development of energy saving industry. GDP specific energy intensity should decrease by 40%, in addition Russia would come into the level, comparable with Canada.

The president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin declared that to the present moment Russia returned to the first ten of the largest world economies. Therefore, if the rate of economic development doesn’t slow down, in ten years Russia will deservedly enter the five of the leading economically developed countries of the world.