Updated August 29, 2008

   The regular calculation s of the international reserves (as of August, 22) published by the Central Bank demonstrated that the capital outflow

from Russia continues and totals no less than $3 billion. On August, 28

the rates at the interbank market reached the records of August, 11 – the market was conducting payments of the income tax. Obviously, the Russian Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will deal with the aggravating problem of the liquidity surplus via extension of the terms of the budgetary deposits in the banking system.

   As of August, 22 the volume of the international reserves of the Russian Federation totaled $581,5 billion. Within a week, August, 15-22, the volume grew by $0,4 billion, and within a next week, August, 22-29, the reserves fell by $16,4 billion. The reserves' dynamics is explained foremost by the capital outflow. According to the calculations of Aleksey Moiseev from Renaissance Capital, within a week, August, 22-29, it could reach about $3-4 billion. However, within a preceding week, August, 8-15, the calculations of the capital outflow were ranging from $8 to $20 billion.

   The capital outflow is predetermined mainly by the political risks' intensification related to the August war in Georgia. There are other factors as well.

Mr. Moiseev reminds that in August the Russian companies had to repay many loans, and only Rosneft paid $9 billion to the borrowers. At the same time,

the liquidity of the banking system has fallen considerably. The amount of facilities on the banks' correspondent accounts and the Central Bank's deposits is still low – RUR 659,5 billion as of August, 28.

The interest rates are, vice versa, high – the daily rate of Mosprime was 7,92% as of August, 28, though they are ranging from 3% to 5%. This index was higher only on August, 11, 2008, when the war conflict in South Ossetia started (7,96%). The banks addressed the Central Bank concerning the liquidity – the overall operations' volume of the daily repo turned out quite high – RUR 168 billion.

   Obviously, the high oil prices influence on the high tax payments so, that, in their turn, influence on the continuing capital outflow, as Yaroslav Lisovolik from Deutsche Bank reminds.

According to the calculations of Renaissance Capital, as of August, 25, the MET payments (Mining Extraction Tax) totaled RUR 270 billion, and as of August, 28, the income tax payments reached RUR 210-220 billion.

    The growth tendency of the interest rates on the background of the money supply's surplus is more obvious.

One of the confirmations is the high rates that appeared as a result of the auction on the placement of the temporary available facilities of the Fund for Contribution to Reformation of Housing and Utilities Sector that took place on August, 28. The continuing problems at the world lending markets, the escalation of the political risks and the further payments on the external debts can result in the growing demand for the state liquidity of the banking system.

The deputy head of the Ministry of Finance Dmitry Pankin explained this fact saying that the Ministry of Finance extends the term of the budgetary facilities' placement on the bank deposits from four to five weeks at the banks' request. Yaroslav Lisovolik supposes that the extension of terms continues further and will have the large-scale character.

It goes about the Ministry of Finance that prepares some tools against

the possible worsening of

the situation with the liquidity and against the partial replacement of the foreign capital with the state loans.