Actuality October, 12, 2007

The experts of International Monetary Fund came to the conclusion that the Russian GDP growth will make 7 % this year. And though it is 0,3% below the prediction of the Russian economic departments – the Treasury Department and the Ministry of Economic Development – it is higher than previous estimations of IMF.

The fund experts recalculated the April prediction in relation to the Russian economy growth towards an improvement. In April the fund experts supposed, that growth rates of the Russian economy will not exceed 6,4%, and in 2008 – 5,9%. Now, in their opinion, the growth will make 7% in the current year, but it will slow down to 6,5% next year.

The inflation level, which is in fund calculated by means of their own procedure (on the average for a year, but not “from December till December”, as accepted in Russia), should exceed 8% mark and attain 8,1% in 2007. As the fund press-release says, this new IMF prediction coincides on the whole with the expectations of Russian authorities. However, as for GDP growth, IMF and Russian economic departments’ guesses differ only over basis points. There is another case with inflation. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Elvira Nabiullina, has recently reported that inflation can exceed not only 8 but also 9% this year.

Nevertheless, IMF notes that economic situation in Russia looks well on the whole. Thus the fund did not forget to remark that the increase of budget outlays, planned for the nearest three years, can result in the economy high pressure. And suggested pursuing a harder financial policy. At the same time, experts regard, it is necessary to enhance the course policy flexibility and presume more rapid nominal ruble strengthening.

As for those financial complications, which other countries have confronted because of a mortgage crisis in the USA, experts came to the conclusion, that Russia has a very steady position today. Due to the minimal national external debt, budgetary and currency reserves the country is reliably protected from any events on financial markets.

Meantime, the scenario prediction for the USA, euro area and world economy on the whole was revised downwards. So, the USA GDP growth for the next year is revised from 2,8 to 1,9%, European Union – from 2,5 to 2,1%, world economy – from 5,2 to 4,8%.