Updated April 1, 2008

  The Savings Bank withdrew from the top three of the companies that are the leaders of the Russian stock market by capitalization. The mortgage crisis resulted in that the securities of financial organizations became the most risky investments for investors and as the result the capitalization of the largest Russian bank went 21% down for a year.

   Before the secondary public offering (SPO) previous year the Savings Bank has occupied the fourth place by capitalization at the Russian market. The largest country bank entered the top three of the companies that are the leaders of the Russian stock market by capitalization after SPO giving the first and second places to Gazprom and Rosneft. In June-July previous year and in January-February current year the Savings Bank capitalization exceeded even Rosneft capitalization. Thus, the Savings Bank was the second Russian company by capitalization after Gazprom. On March, 25 the Savings Bank occupied the third place and outstripped Lukoil at $2,5 billion. However, the situation changed on March, 26. Lukoil company outstripped the Savings Bank by capitalization, but at only $445 million. On the assumption of the RTS closing price on March, 26 the capitalization of Lukoil totaled $67,36 billion, the Savings Bank – $66,91 billion. On March, 31 this break has increased at 7%, up to $5,15 billion. Gazprom still keeps the first place (capitalization is $300 billion), and Rosneft – the second ($95,9 billion).

   The investors’ concern decline with the securities of the financial sector is foremost related to the financial crisis growth in the USA, which affected all world markets. The Savings Bank capitalization has begun to reduce since November previous year. On March, 31 the bank stocks cost by 17,43% lower than the cost within the last year’s SPO. "The bank securities were sold all over the world, and the Savings Bank retained the specific level longer than the others", marks KIT Finance Investment Bank chief analyst Maria Kalvarskaya. So, VTB Bank stocks’ cost went down lower the IPO cost held in August previous year, and the Savings Bank – in January. On March, 31 VTB stocks’ quotations cost 37% cheaper than during IPO.

   The statement of the Ministry of Finance head Alexey Kudrin about the possible tax burden reduction for oil companies became the additional driver for Lukoil quotations growth on the background of quotations drop of banks stocks. From 2009 the state plans to reduce the mining extraction tax (MET) that will reduce this tax collection from oil companies up to RUR 100 billion. "The statement became the sign for the market, that it is just the first step. And ahead there are another positive news about taxation changes which will affect the financial state of oil companies as well as their securities’ quotations", supposes Alpha Bank analyst Konstantin Batunin. After the statement of Alexey Kudrin many analysts began to raise forecasts for the costs dynamics of oil companies’ securities. According to the forecast of Deutsche Bank analysts, Lukoil securities can attain $124,7 within the year (higher than the closing price as of March, 31 by 45,84%). The most optimistic forecast have Credit Suisse analysts – $135 (plus 57,89%).

   Meantime, the investors’ attitude towards the bank securities will depend on the American companies. "The American banks still remain the important and predetermining factor for investors", Maria Kalvarskaya is sure. "If their new quarterly accounting does not bring negative news, then the investors’ trust towards the stocks of the financial sector will regain". Atlanta PioGlobal analysts mark that both the Western and Russian market of stocks would receive the strongest motion only in the mid-April, when the largest American companies would publish their 1Q 2008 reporting.