Actual ity January 12, 2008

   The first Vice Prime Minister of Russian Federation (RF) Sergey Ivanov declared that according to 2007 results the Russian weapon export would attain the next record, exceeding $7bln. Thus, Russia received about $1 bln less because of problems with ship building and cooling relations with Algeria.

For seven years, within which the former head of Rosoboronexport Federal State Unitary Enterprise (FSUE) and now director general of Rostecnology public corporation Sergey Chemezov was engaged in weapon export, the sales volume grew twice.

   According to Mr. Ivanov, "in the current year there are all grounds to talk about crossing $7 bln mark". It is a record: in 2006 the Russian weapon was sold for $6,5 bln. Growth of weapon export became the result of large contracts concluded in 2004-2006. The situation in the world favored their conclusion, when on the background of the USA operations in Afghanistan and Iraq some moslem countries began to carry out the mass purchases of military equipment in Russia, perceiving it as if not the enemy of America, but at least as the competitor. At the same time, Russian defensive industry on export contracts gradually went out from the crisis of the 90th, that allowed beginning large serial deliveries from 2006-2007.

   The main volume of concluded contracts fell to the stake of created in November, 2000 public intermediary – FSUE Rosoboronexport (producers and developers of armaments are now allowed to export only repair parts indep ende

ntly, and also to conduct repair and modernization of the installed technique). At first, Rosoboronexport director general was Andrey Belyaninov, but the main work on preparation of the largest contracts conducted his first deputy Sergey Chemezov.

And in April, 2004 he headed the company. The old acquaintance of Mr. Chemezov with Vladimir Putin contributed to the more active state support of export projects of the Russian armorers. On November, 26 Mr. Chemezov headed Rostecnology public corporation, which joined Rosoboronexport.

Thus, for seven years of Sergey Chemezov work in Rosoboronexport the sales volume of the Russian weapon grew from $3,68 bln (in 2000) up to more than $7 bln.

   In Rosoboronexport they did not comment the statement of Mr. Ivanov. According to the head of Federal Service of Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) Mikhail Dmitriev, the aviation technique continues to be in the most demand: Su and MiG airplanes, Mi helicopters. Indeed, this year Russia supplies about 70 Su-30 fighters to India, Algeria, Venezuela, Malaysia to the sum about $3 bln. "This year became the record one for us", declared Oleg Demchenko, the president of the Irkut corporation. "Irkutsk plant will assemble 43 fighters Su-30MKI, Su-30MKM and Su-30MKI(A) by the year end. We did not assemble so much even in the soviet years". In 2007 large deliveries were executed in the Air Defense field. At the beginning of the year Mr.

Ivanov again officially declared about contract execution with Iran on the short-range complexes "Tor-M1". In addition, continued contract execution on supplies of long-range systems S-300PMU to China.

   Execution of the planned deliveries in naval armaments has failed.

In September the Indian fleet representatives reported that the lease transfer of nuclear-power submarine Chakra of project 971 Schuka-B, planned for August, 15, is postponed till June, 15, 2008, as the Amur shipbuilding plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur detains its building for ten months. Russia insisted on the increase of the contract cost from $650 mln to $785 mln. India agreed on the postponement, but refused to reconsider

the price.

   Execution of some contracts with Algeria was stopped, agreements included in the package for $8 bln, signed in March, 2006 during Vladimir Putin visit to this country.

Initiative to freeze the already agreed purchase of the Russian weapon belongs

to Algeria authorities. Relations cooling, apparently, was caused by both domestic political situation in Algeria and sudden activation on African direction of France.

   In a short-term perspective it is possible to expect further volumes´ growth of military equipment supplies from Russia. Portfolio growth of weapon exporters' orders testifies it.

In February Mr. Dmitriev declared, that it totals $30 bln, from which "about $20 bln falls to Rosoboronexport stake", and that allows the Russian export to remain at the level of 2007 the next two-three years.

The FSVTS head reported: "The present portfolio volume of export orders of Military-Technical Cooperation subjects – over $32bln – allows quite optimistically to look at collaboration perspectives in military-technical sphere. The basic reserve is created by Rosoboronexport, in its asset the orders portfolio totals $24 bln". It is expected that in 2008 aviation deliveries will prevail in export also – fighters Su and MiG to India, Venezuela, Indonesia, Syria. Supplies of air defense systems are also planned to China and Syria, warships to Vietnam, submarines to India and Algeria.

   However, experts do not eliminate decline of the Russian weapon deliveries in three-four years. "With the output of $7 bln we face some "plateau". Our export will stay at this level at least the nearest three-four years, if the existent international state of affairs remains", declared Ruslan Pukhov, the director of Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

"However, dramatic falling can expect this "plateau" then. In expert opinion, Russian defensive industry experiences the staff hunger, especially for highly skilled workers. At the same time inflation in defensive industry substantially exceeds the general level over the country: if in 2007 inflation in Russia makes up about 12%, in the military industrial complex it exceeds 20%. Moreover, in Mr.

Pukhov opinion, in defensive industry rapidly grow overhead costs because of non-use of energy conservation technologies. As a result, Russia can not produce part of armaments at all, and others can occur noncompetitive in price.

Delivery of the Iskander tactical missile systems to Belarus will become an asymmetrical response to the plans of the USA on creation of the third positioning ABM (anti-ballistic missile) region in European continent, reference to the statement of commander of the Russian Missile and Artillery Troops, Colonel General Vladimir Zaritsky.

“Any action always triggers counteraction, and it is the same with ABM elements in the USA, the Czech Republic and Poland”, general added. Zaritsky underlined also, that Russian and Belarusian missilemen closely co-operate and are intended to develop cooperation.
The statement of Zaritsky became a response to the report of commander of the Belarusian Missile and Artillery Troops, Michael Puzikov, who has declared about planned deliveries of Iskander systems from Russia.

As Zaritsky marked, presently the Iskander potentialities correspond to limitations of treaty about medium-range (MRBM) and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), forbidding elaboration, production and deployment of ground-launched ballistic missiles (GLBM) with a range of 500-5000 km. However, in case of Russia abrogating the treaty, the Iskander receives extended-range ballistic missiles (ERBM).

Presently the Russian forces enters the Iskander system of basic modification equipped with solid-propellant single-stage ballistic missiles with a range of 280 km. The first missile brigade, equipped with the systems of this type, already is on a combat duty in the North Caucasus military district.

Entry into service of the system with aerodynamic missiles is expected in 2009.

More details about the Iskander-E (export version) tactical missile system

Successfully run Russian state tests of the new precise-accuracy Iskander-E system. The Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation rates this development among absolute priorities. The system is able to handle all operational tasks vested in this weapon class. Its appearance in forces will substantially increase possibilities of Armed Forces of Russia.

This system, equipped with two missiles, has lethal firepower.

It allows to engage two various targets with an interval in one minute.

At the development of the Iskander-E all treaty requirements about MRBM and SRBM and about nonproliferation of missile technologies, that limit Russian right for export deliveries of missiles with a range of more than 300 km and payload weight more than 500 kg, are satisfied. Launch range of this system is 50-280 km, missile launch weight is 3.800 kg, and payload weight is 480

kg. Flight range is non-ballistic, hardly predicted for an enemy.

A missile is controlled throughout the entire flight path. On the initial stage it is controlled by gas dynamic vanes and after speed pick-up by aerodynamic. Right after the start and directly at target approach the missile begins to manoeuvre, changing the flight plane that, in particular, impedes its verification from space.

The greater part of missile flight range, made on stealth technology and having small radar cross section (RCS), runs at the 50 km height, reducing its destruction probability both from earth and from air. Stealth effect is attained due to the aggregate of construction features. In particular, by special coating of construction, by dropping off of all its projecting parts right after the start and other.

Depending on type of flight path, G-force correlates from 20 to 30 g. For interception ABM sustains G-force at least 2-3 times higher.

All these creates considerable difficulties to the developers of the antiballistic systems with the Iskander-E.
The immediate competitor of the Iskander-E tactical missile system is the American ATACMS system, and also, in a lesser degree, Chinese missiles

of M9 type.

Firing distance of basline version of ATACMS is 112-115 km, at modernization, due to reduction of warhead weight, is about 180 km. The fundamental difference is considerably more low precision, which in the American system is possible to improve only due to the NAVSTAR navigation system. Iskander-E is an absolute leader as for ABM defense.

The Russian system is able to work both in the NAVSTAR navigation system, and in autonomous mode with the homing warheads on the terrain maps.

Source data – aero- or space photos.

All other operations – preparation of mission, its processing and other – Iskander-E systems execute independently. In case of the homing warheads use the precise accuracy of target engagement is measured in meters.
Preliminary marketing researches show large foreign customers’ interest in Iskander-E. But rather notable is a quite powerful opposition of the USA. The point is that none of the existent and perspective ABM systems is unable to fight against such tactical missile system. The military-industrial lobby of the USA exerts strong pressure upon a number of potential buyers of Iskander-E.
We will mark that all components of this tactical missile system are made at batch production factories, and everything is ready for the immediate batch production.

Within the framework of state tests the Iskander-E system was lauchned more than 10 times – more than a half. A basic problem is prepayment delays of subcontractors for making of materiel to the next tests’ stages. In the presence of proper financial provision they would be soon accomplished.

Russia became the leader on supplies of weapon

in the first five years of new century, reference to information of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

According to data of SIPRI, on Russia falls 31% from the general volume of weapon supplies for export in 2001-2005.

On the second place is the USA, having taken 30% of the market.

Russia‘ s leader

ship is explained by large-scale supplies in relation to cheap weapon armament.

The USA keeps the leadership at cost of the sold weapon.

So, according to data of Congress analytical service, in 2006 the USA has sold weapon in sum of $10,3 billions. Russia according to this index has taken the second place with the volume of supplies of $8,1 billions, Great Britain has closed a group of three leaders with $3,1 billions. In total three leading producers take almost 75% of world weapon market.

The main partners of Russia in 2001-2005 were India and China, on which fell 25% and 43% of supplies accordingly.

As experts of SIPRI consider, these countries still remain the largest buyers

of military technique of Russian production.

SIPRI is the largest research organization, studying the world market of weapon and regularly presenting independent expert estimations.

The local authorities of the city of Sarov in Nizhniy Novgorod region have accidentally declassified the newest construction project of the Russian submarine, having put on the authorities’ official site the meeting report with its captain.

The report on visit to the city of the captain of the 3rd class of submarine “Sarov” Sergey Kroshkin was put on the authorities’ official site of Sarov on September, 6th, 2007.

The item said, that the submarine is still on the stocks of a Severodvinsk plant, but “the commander-in-chief of navy has given a task to complete the work till the end of the year”. Also it was reported, that the date of a solemn launching is not defined yet, but the crew of 52 officers and midshipmen is already formed, and the submariners who served under the command of Kroshkin for four years on the submarine “Lipetsk” are its basis.
Besides, in the item there was project number the submarine (20120) and its performance characteristics were given. As “the Kommersant” (Russian magazine) notes, the new submarine is very similar to diesel submarines of the project 877 “Paltus” (”Halibut”), but it has larger displacement (3950 tons instead of 3050).

On Monday the report on visit of the captain of “Sarov” disappeared from the site of local authorities, but it was copied by Sarov information portal “Our city” and other local mass-media.

At the same time all officials who were referred to for the comments could not tell anything about the project 20120.

The representative of the press service of the Russian Federation Navy Alexander Smirnov said that he “knew nothing”. At the shipbuilding yard “Star” in Severodvinsk it was reported, that their plant does not build new submarines, and the representatives of Northern machine-building company simply refused to answer the questions connected with the new submarine.

The key decision maker of underwater technology the central construction department “Rubin” also could neither confirm, nor deny its participation in project 20120.
There are two versions about the fact why the submarine “Sarov” can be surrounded by such secrecy.

According to the first one, the pilot project 20120 is intended for trials of the nuclear reactor on a diesel submarine as a supplementary power generating system.

Similar experiments in 1980s were made in the USSR, and it is possible, that the Russian scientists decided to restart the program of placing mini-reactors on diesel submarines.

According the second version the newest nuclear reactor is tested on the project 20120 which was mentioned for the first time in February, 2007 in the publication of “Nizhniy Novgorod commercial newspaper”, dealing with the anniversary of the leading design engineer

of reactors for submarines of experimental design office of engineering industry named after I.

Afrikantov.

It got about from unnamed sources of the military-industrial complex that Russian aircraft builders negotiate with one of the western companies about the construction of altitude planes M-55 to provide communication lines.

The name of the company-customer and presumable scope of supply are not given.

This contract execution demands continuation of the planes’ production at the Smolensk aircraft plant.

The plane M-55 has been developed at the end of the 80th in

interests of Department

of Defence

of Russia as the altitude strategic scout.

There has been constructed four mach ines of this type

in all, two of which have been lost in accidents.

One of the remained machines has been converted into the plane of ecological monitoring of the Earth, having received its own name ?-55 “Geophysics”.

The ceiling of ?-55 exceeds 21 kilometer, the disposable load is 1500 kgs (3307 pound). The plane’s course speed is 740 kilometers, the flying range at a big height

is 5000 kilometers.

American strategic scout U-2/ TR-1 is the analogue to M-55.