Actuality January 16, 2008

   In 2007 the volume of illegal import totaled 16,1 % from official one, if compared to the statistics of the Federal Customs Service with the Central Bank data. This is the record level in the newest history of Russia. In 1996 unrecorded import reached 44,7 % from official one, in 2005 – 29 %, and in 2006 – 20,7 %.

   Statistics of the Federal Customs Service covers 11 months of 2007 during which the imported goods were declared for $177,4 billion, that is by $56,6 billion more than for the similar period of 2006. If take into account that the average annual growth rate remained in December, for a year the import will make about $196 billion, and annual growth totaled $58,3 billion. According to the Central Bank, in 2007 there were actually imported goods for $225,3 billion, and annual growth totaled $60,6 billion – a little more than growth of import of declared goods. In the whole declared import grew by 47 % during 11 months, and actual import of goods including illegal import grew by 37 %.

   It appears that volume of shadow import has not almost changed – $29,3 billion. According to the Central Bank, in 2006 unrecorded goods were imported for $28,5 billion. Central Bank estimates volumes of shadow import by spread of volume of retail trade goods and internal domestic production and by official import.

   This year import grows at record rates, as the research manager of Economic Expert Group Evsej Gurvich says, and the main reason is the fast growth of internal demand.

   Trading liberalization also helped: duties on upgrade kit and a number of other goods are essentially lowered, adds the chief economist of Deutsche Bank in Russia Yaroslav Lisovolik.

   Among the goods bought in the far abroad countries (only $150,4 billion), 54 % fell on cars and the equipment – by 3,6 percentage points more than in 2006. Import of cars has essentially grown by 55,2 % and trucks – 2,2 times.

   The market of electronics is historically considered to be illegal, but now it is one of the most legal, rejoices Anton Guskov, the PR-manager of the Association of trading companies and manufacturers of consumer electronic and computer equipment (RATEK). According to RATEK, in 2006 100 % of cell-phones and 70 % of LCD-TV-sets were imported legally, problems remained with laptops (48 %) and both photo and video cameras (21 %). But in 2007 the situation is better: duties on digital cameras and computer accessories were zeroed, Guskov notes, and there are no problems with large household appliances.

   The share of the foodstuffs and production of the chemical industry has slightly decreased by 13,7 % and 14,5 % respectively. But the cost volumes have grown: products of the chemical industry – by 28,4 %, medicines – by 12,6 %. Physical volumes of import of the foodstuffs have grown also: fish – by 26,3 %, coffee – by for 22,3 %, raw sugar – by 38,9 %, meat – by for 8,9 %.

   The share of metals and metal work in import has not almost changed – 5,6 % (in 2006 – 5,1 %), their cost volumes have grown by 69,4 %.

   The considerable growth was shown the import from the Asian countries: from China – by 91,7 %, from Vietnam – by 53,2 %, from Indonesia – by 63,2 %, from Malaysia – by 68,8 %, from Turkey – by 61,4 %. The part of growth is caused by direct increase of import, Lisovolik notes: the countries of Asia are more adhered to dollar, and in 2007 it weakened against ruble to 7 %, another part of growth is a consequence of import whitewash.

   EU share in the foreign trade turnover of Russia has reduced from 54,8 % to 51,5 %, the share of the CIS grew from 14,8 % to 15 %. Goods turnover with China grew by 40,8 %, it took the third place among economic partners of Russia.