Russia's GDP accelerates, unlike its quality

Updated September 9, 2008

   Russia’s economy, despite the world financial crisis and deceleration of growth rates of some world-leading countries, is still accelerating. According to the latest data published by Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service), in 1H, the country’s GDP grew by 8% in real money terms. Thus, the growth rates were lower in 2Q, than in 1Q - 7,5% against 8,5%. The experts ask not to cherish the illusion about high growth rates of the economy. In 3Q, the results may worsen. At the moment, along with some deceleration of GDP’s growth rates, the experts mark its poor quality. The growth is attained mainly due to the industries that don’t’ relate to the real sectors of the economy. In the experts’ opinion, even they will demonstrate the drop of their positive dynamics in 3Q.

   Such sectors as fishing (20,2%), trade (11,7%), transport and communication (9,4%), and construction (18,7%) demonstrated the highest growth of the value added in 2Q. The growth in the manufacture was lower - 6,6%. According to the data of the statistics service, the fall was recorded in only one key industry of the economy - in mining (-1%). In the meantime, in August, Rosstat published the disappointing data, according to which, within the period of January-July, the industrial production grew by 5,4% against 7,6% as compared to the analogical period of the previous year. Thus, the July growth was only 3,2%. However, in June, the growth rates fell to 0,8%. The indices of oil extraction are falling each month: within seven months of this year, 283 million tons of oil and gas condensate were extracted, and it is 0,8% less as compared to the analogical period of the previous year. Thus, in July, the drop reached 1,9%, whereas in January-February, 2008, the extraction grew by 0,6% as compared to the first two months of the previous year, and it means that the tendency of oil extraction drop accelerates.

   According to the data of this year, fishing that has demonstrated the impressive growth, occupies less than 1% in the structure of Russia’s GDP, whereas mining - about 10%, and manufacture - 17%. However, trade and service sector increase severely their presence - the stake of the latter reaches about 18% and continues to grow.

   In the experts’ opinion, the relatively favorable situation in Russia’s economy will worsen gradually, despite the growth in its certain sectors. "It is quite obvious that we can’t say anything positive about the real sector. The growth of GDP’s indices is guaranteed by means of trade as well that still plays the major role in the economy, about 18%, plus it grows by 12%", as the director of FBK’s department for strategic analysis Igor Nikolaev says. "It is better to mark that the trade’s stake reaches 10% in the developed countries, when in Russia this index is more than twofold". In the analyst’s opinion, this fact dissatisfies, since the quality of the economy growth falls, moreover, the indices of the growth itself are falling as well. Therefore, the data of the statistics shouldn’t delude. "The results of 3Q can be disappointing as well, since the June data has been quite alarming", as Mr. Nikolaev warns. "In July-September, the indices will worsen obviously; thus, even trade and other sectors of the unreal economy, if we can say so, will go down. So, it is useless speaking about the modernization of economy in such conditions".