Forecast of Russia’s stock market for August, 4, 2008 – August, 8, 2008

 

Updated August 4, 2008

   Last week was unsuccessful for the Russian stock market. Indices have demonstrated considerable fall.

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For instance, MICEX index (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange) went down below 1500 points level, thus an attempt to exceed this mark was unsuccessful.

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From the technical point of view, this demonstrates

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the market weakness and probable further drop.

   External background remains uncertain as well.

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Leading trading floors try to change an outward tendency, however, a full technical turn is not observed.

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Perhaps, this week market participants will receive clear signals after Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the USA holds the meeting. Investors expect a discount rate remains at the old level, thus, comments of FRS members will be of primary importance.

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At the end of the week Bank of England and European Central Bank will hold their meetings as well. On the background of weak macroeconomic statistics, monetary authorities have fewer instruments to influence the current situation. However, there are some, and they can arouse some new optimism in the middle of the week.

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Stocks of financial sector and banks are expected to grow.

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   Russian floors overall will try to keep neutrality.

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Trades volumes will be lower at the beginning of the week, dynamics – more soft.

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External background remains moderately negative, for instance, at the current moment, on the background of falling Asian indices after opening, one can observe some fixing, within percent framework. All liquid securities will be popular.

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Banks stocks will be weaker, and oil

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and gas sector will be more stable. Stocks of mining and metallurgical sector, after rather good technical surge, will become the fixing object at the beginning of the week.

 

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